Responsible for moving over 70% of U.S. freight, the trucking sector became a focal point in the 2024 presidential race. With former President Donald Trump as the Republican nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris representing the Democrats, each proposed a distinct direction for the industry’s future.
With Trump now re-elected, trucking companies and owner-operators can anticipate continued deregulation, a hallmark of his administration's business-friendly approach. This approach may provide short-term relief through reduced oversight, but analysts warn that limited infrastructure investment and uncertain trade conditions could threaten the industry's long-term growth and stability.
Had she won, Kamala Harris planned to prioritize sustainability, labor protections, and infrastructure investment. Her approach aimed to create a more modern and regulated sector, though some smaller companies may have struggled with the costs of these transitions.
Ultimately, the 2024 election could shape not only the trucking industry but also the future of U.S. commerce, affecting everyone from large trucking firms to small operators. By examining where Trump and Harris stand on trucking, you can gain insight into the paths that were possible—and the road that now lies ahead.
Kamala Harris’s Vision: Sustainability and Regulation
Kamala Harris’s vision for the trucking industry reflects a strong commitment to environmental sustainability and labor protections, though the path to these goals comes with complexities for the industry.
Pushing for Emission Reductions and Zero-Emission Trucks
A key component of Harris’s agenda is the reduction of emissions in the trucking sector. The 2027 NOX rule, which mandates that diesel trucks built after 2027 produce 82% fewer NOx emissions, is a major regulatory initiative. Additionally, the EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles—Phase 3 calls for a significant increase in the production of zero-emission trucks. By 2032, OEMs will be required to ensure that 25% of long-haul and 40% of short-haul trucks are ZEVs.
However, transitioning to these greener technologies comes at a significant cost. Experts estimate that the shift to ZEVs, along with the necessary infrastructure upgrades, could raise truck prices by at least $20,000.
Management consultancy, Roland Berger, further projected that infrastructure costs for upgrades could approach $1 trillion. While tax incentives through the Inflation Reduction Act aim to offset some of these costs, the need for charging infrastructure and grid upgrades could still make ZEVs unaffordable for many operators, especially smaller fleets.
Note: Harris has been a consistent advocate for environmental regulations even before her time as Vice President. As California's Attorney General, she defended the state's aggressive emissions rules, including the California Air Resources Board's Truck and Bus Rule, which phased out older diesel trucks and sometimes caused significant costs for small-business truckers. She also led efforts to hold Volkswagen accountable for its emissions scandal, securing $1.18 billion for zero-emission technology and environmental mitigation in California.
Infrastructure Development and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill
Harris’s focus on infrastructure investment is also a key part of her agenda. Under President Biden, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) allocated a historic $1.2 trillion in infrastructure investments, with $300 billion earmarked for roads and bridges. This investment addresses critical maintenance and modernization needs, directly benefiting the trucking sector by improving road conditions.
The American Society of Civil Engineer’s 2021 Infrastructure Report Card highlighted that 43% of U.S. roadways are in poor or mediocre condition, with a $786 billion backlog in road and bridge repairs.
During his presidency, Trump also aimed to pass a large-scale infrastructure package similar to BIL. He hosted several “infrastructure weeks” to promote bipartisan efforts for upgrading roads, bridges, and broadband networks. Though he initially proposed a $2 trillion package, political disagreements and other priorities ultimately prevented a finalized bill.
Labor Protections and the PRO Act
The Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which Harris supports, aims to strengthen labor unions and improve workers' rights. For the trucking industry, where owner-operators form a significant part of the workforce, the PRO Act could lead to a reclassification of many drivers as employees.
This shift would entitle them to benefits such as healthcare and overtime pay. While these improvements would significantly enhance working conditions, they would also raise operational costs for companies, particularly those that rely on independent contractors.
Donald Trump’s Vision: Trade and Deregulation
During his presidency, Donald Trump pursued aggressive economic and trade policies, which he believed would strengthen the U.S. economy and its industries, including trucking. His "America First" approach sought to prioritize American businesses, but it came with complex implications for the trucking sector.
Impact of Tariffs on Trucking
One of the defining features of Donald Trump’s economic approach included imposing tariffs on imports from countries like China and Mexico. Trump suggested a sweeping 10-20% tariff on all imported goods, with particularly steep tariffs—up to 60%—on Chinese imports, and even a 100% tariff on cars from Mexico. While designed to protect U.S. industries, these tariffs disrupted global supply chains and caused significant challenges for trucking companies that rely on international trade.
The impact on the freight market was evident during the 2018-2019 period when trade tensions with China began to escalate. Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics, reflected on the consequences: “I think that would be very destructive to the freight market. We saw a little bit of that between ‘18-’19… That disrupted the trade market and set us into that spiral in 2019…”
Energy Policy and Fuel Costs
Trump’s energy policy, one of his core campaign promises, centered on achieving energy independence. He boasted during his presidency, “Under the Trump administration just three and a half years ago, we were energy independent.” Trump’s administration pushed for more domestic oil production, claiming the U.S. had more energy resources than any other nation. Trump argued that the U.S. should capitalize on its vast energy resources to boost the economy.
However, under President Biden, the U.S. energy landscape has shifted. As of late 2023, the U.S. produced 13.2 million barrels of oil per day, but diesel prices have still risen from an average of $3.05 per gallon in mid-2019 to $3.78 per gallon mid-2024. Trump criticized Biden’s energy policies, accusing him of undoing the progress made under his administration and “destroying” the energy policies that made the U.S. energy independent.
To his point, he raised concerns about future energy demands driven by emerging technologies. In a recent statement, he noted, “A.I. needs tremendous—literally, twice the electricity that’s available now in our country, can you imagine? But instead we’re spending on places where they recharge electric cars.”
The Electric Power Research Institute projects that data centers, where A.I. computation takes place, could consume up to 9% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030—more than double the current amount used. This shift in energy priorities is a key point of contention between Trump and the Biden administration.
Stand on Electric Vehicles
While Trump and many in the trucking industry align in their skepticism toward electric vehicles (EVs), Trump’s stance on clean energy is more direct. Trump vowed to end the EV mandate on day one of his presidency, framing it as a necessary step to save the U.S. auto industry.
He has repeatedly called the push for green energy a waste of taxpayer dollars and criticized the Biden administration’s emphasis on clean energy. The $7.5 billion allocated in the BIL to build 500,000 EV chargers by 2030 has met with resistance from Trump, who calls it “the Green New Scam.”
Trump’s administration was also known for rolling back environmental and general trucking regulations alike:
Under Trump, the speed limiter mandate was shelved in June 2017, along with the sleep apnea screening rulemaking and a proposed safety rating revamp. While these regulations were aimed at improving safety, truckers viewed them as unnecessary burdens, especially for smaller carriers. In 2021 however, Biden renewed the speed limiter mandate.
In 2020, the Hours of Service (HOS) rule changes were made to provide truckers with more flexibility. The new regulations allowed drivers to split their off-duty time into two periods of up to seven and three hours, respectively, allowing for more rest and better scheduling. This change was a win for the industry, giving drivers more control over their time on the road.
Geopolitical Policy Effects
Trump's approach to energy and global conflicts had notable implications for the trucking industry. A central part of his strategy was to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war, which the Biden administration has linked to rising inflation and higher fuel prices, often referred to as the “Putin price hike”.
Trump has argued that he could bring about a negotiated settlement with Russia within 24 hours, a move that could lead to a more stable global supply of oil and natural gas. This, in turn, could help reduce fuel costs for trucking companies, alleviating some of the financial burdens they face.
The trucking industry is the backbone of U.S. commerce and will continue to drive the economy forward, no matter which political party leads. As Ken Vieth, president of ACT Research, wisely stated, “We’re still going to be eating and drinking and buying clothes and cars and houses the day after the election.”
With Trump’s renewed emphasis on deregulation, energy independence, and an "America First" approach, the trucking industry could see its role become more central than ever. By reducing regulatory burdens and countering inflationary trends, his approach aims to increase flexibility and lower operational costs. Altogether, Trump’s trucking-related policies demonstrate strong, continued support for the industry’s crucial contribution in driving U.S. commerce.
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